This interview was co-authored by Dineshi Ramesh and Alexander Saleh.
John Elkington is a Founding Partner and Chief Pollinator at Volans, a leading sustainability think tank and advisory practice. He is a world authority on sustainable capitalism and corporate responsibility, and an author of 20 books. His latest, “Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism,” explores how Green Swan events present a path to exponential progress in our economies, society and the environment.
If anyone had told me as a child that I would write even one book, I would have been completely nonplussed!
Around two years ago, I began writing a book that wasn’t to be this book. It was to be about artificial intelligence and its use in facing all sorts of grand challenges which are more complicated than what we’ve previously faced. However, as I got quite deep into that, it emerged that there was very little demand from publishers at the time. There was already so much on AI out there.
So, I flipped it. I began examining the nature of the risks and challenges that we must now confront. When it came out, the ideas in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “The Black Swan” made a big impact on me. As I was thinking about the negative exponentials of economic, social and environmental breakdowns that lead to Black Swans, I also began to think about positive exponentials. The Green Swan language, appeared to be a relatively simple way to capture and explore these potential breakthroughs.
The Green Swan concept takes the ideas of traditional “green growth” one step further, by saying that we must move from incremental solutions to exponential ones. The challenges that we face, plastics in the oceans, antibiotic resistance, Covid-19, climate emergencies, obesity and so on, are building at exponential rates.
So this isn’t just about (hopefully green) growth, it’s about exponential growth and solutions to exponential problems. We’ve got to replace the ways that we feed, house, transport, inform and finance our swollen human populations.
I’m a big fan of the work of the Xprize Foundation, Singularity University and GoogleX. The people who are trying to think about exponential solutions. And these solutions aren’t just waiting to be plucked from a tree, they require a huge effort, huge stamina and political will. Black Swans happen because we aren’t really paying attention. Green Swans happen when we really do begin to pay attention.
We need the innovation, the enterprise and risk-taking of the private sector, there’s absolutely no question about that. It was interesting to observe Marc Benioff stating that capitalism is broken, only to be countered by Warren Buffet saying “only governments can create conditions that make the private sector do the right thing.”
I believe governments have a central role to play. Look at what’s happening with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal and the trillion-euro investment into the European Green Deal. Mariana Mazzucato, an economist who I pay a lot of attention to, points to times in our past where the government has waded in, for example in the space industry. Over time, the private sector has no option but to make a success of playing a new game, with new rules. I think we’re there again.
And whilst it’s clear that developing the world economy along the lines of Milton Friedman’s principles of small government hasn’t worked, at the same time, much of government policy-making is ineffective and not fit-for-purpose. Business periodically reinvents itself around new and innovative ideas. Government hasn’t ever achieved this to the same extent, and now needs to do so. It is essential but must be reinvented to best serve our long-term interest.
If you look at human thinking patterns, we’re not wonderfully well-wired to do even elementary mathematics. I stumbled out of calculus as soon as it appeared on the horizon at school. But as to whether we can encourage or train people to think in exponential ways? I think we can begin by encouraging people to pay attention to what’s already going on in the wider world — and to use models and machines to get a grip on exponentials, be they good, bad, or ugly.
It’s not as if exponential flurries haven’t happened before. Looking at Information Technology and how that spread through our economy, that was a whole series of exponential trajectories. So it’s not that we haven’t been there before, it’s just that it’s incredibly disruptive when you find yourself there. If you were at IBM at the time, suddenly your business model was being pulled apart by upstarts like Microsoft and Cisco. I think that’s where we might be headed again.
Having a broad vision of where we need to get to is important, like JFK’s challenge to get a man on the moon. If that vision is set clearly enough and the incentives are put in place, it’s amazing what we can achieve as a species. But it will be from those untrammelled economies, those that are on a growth curve and are confident, as opposed to those that are feeling tired and defensive.
Crazy Horse, the Lakota war leader who united the Plains Indians to stand up against General Custer. He was an outlier and wasn’t afraid to go against convention. However, my wife Elaine raised the two very correct points that I don’t eat meat and I don’t speak Oglala Sioux, so I might not get very far!
I’ve had a few that I’ve used over the years, but I’d share one that comes from the US Army Corps of Engineers during the Pacific Theatre in World War Two: “The difficult we do immediately. The impossible takes a little longer.”
I normally say only go for one target audience, as that helps with the writing process. But here, I think there are three answers: